We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2025 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 12 to June 23, with the official Emmy nominations announced Tuesday, July 15. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 18 and ends the night of August 27. The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 14, and air live on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
The State of the Race
The Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series race has been even more of a rollercoaster than the actual drama series race, because of how the top contenders all aired so close to each other in the spring. One week would be Sterling K. Brown in the seventh episode of “Paradise” giving the monologue of a lifetime, then it would be Adam Scott on “Severance” impressively navigating the innies and outies of the complex world they all built on the Dan Erickson-created Apple TV+ show. Then the slow burn marathon of TV veteran Noah Wyle having one of the worst days ever in the emergency room as Dr. Robby on “The Pitt,” a huge new hit for the newly re-minted HBO Max. And finally, a bombastic swan song for Pedro Pascal on the HBO series that has made him a superstar, “The Last of Us.”
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This is not to say there were not other performances for this TV season that were notable. For example, both “The Day of the Jackal” star Eddie Redmayne and “Slow Horses” star Gary Oldman (one of the only returning nominees from last year), received nominations at winter award shows like the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Though both Brits have Oscars, neither has ever won an Emmy. In fact, their networks have never won the category either, so it is a bit of an uphill battle for them still.
However, going into nominations voting, the goal is to stay top of mind, so newer seasons of television like “Andor” Season 2 on Disney+, of the freshman seasons of “Your Friends and Neighbors” on Apple TV+ and “Landman” on Paramount+, could be more readily on voters’ radars as they cast their ballots. Their respective stars Diego Luna, Jon Hamm, and Billy Bob Thorton have all been nominated for a Primetime Emmy before, with Hamm having won this particular category for the final season of “Mad Men.”
If there is one network many TV fans wish the Television Academy diverted its attention back to, it would be AMC. Both “Interview with the Vampire” and “Dark Winds” have some of the most lauded lead performances, from Jacob Anderson and Zahn McClarnon, respectively, but have not had the same commercial success as the network’s most recent major Emmys contender, “Better Call Saul.”
Predicted Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (HBO)
Eddie Redmayne, “The Day of the Jackal” (Peacock)
Adam Scott, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Contenders:
Jon Hamm, “Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV+)
Diego Luna, “Andor” (ABC)
Billy Bob Thorton, “Landman” (Paramount+)
In a Perfect World:
Zahn McClarnon, “Dark Winds” (AMC)
Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light” (PBS)
Forest Whitaker, “Godfather of Harlem” (MGM+)
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 77th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: It has been well over a decade since someone has won the Lead Actor in a Drama Series Emmy for back-to-back seasons. Only “Squid Game” star Lee Jung-jae has a chance at starting a streak, since the even less likely option would be for FX to win the category twice in a row, as it is short of Drama Series contenders this season.
Notable Ineligible Series: Dominic West, “The Crown” (ended); Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (Season 2 is not eligible); Idris Elba, “Hijack” (Season 2 is not eligible); Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Season 2 is not eligible); Walton Goggins, “Fallout” (Season 2 is not eligible).
