We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2025 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 12 to June 23, with the official Emmy nominations announced Tuesday, July 15. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 18 and ends the night of August 27. The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 14, and air live on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
The State of the Race
There are a couple categories that are brutal this year because they lost one nomination slot, and Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series is one of them. Funny enough, the whole reason the category had six nomination slots last year was because there was a tie. That is not something contenders can count on, though it is indicative of how there are more than five performances that stand out.
Related Stories
Starting with the returnees, it would be hard to imagine Jeremy Allen White, who is on a two year winning streak, being looked over, even if “The Bear” Season 3 was not as well received. However, the difference this year is that “Only Murders in the Building” star Martin Short, who has been nominated for every season of the Hulu show, triumphed over the young actor at the SAG Awards this year. Short’s co-star Steve Martin has been left out of the Emmy category before, for Season 2, but the show also winning Best Comedy Ensemble at the SAG Awards, which are similarly voted on by industry professionals, suggests that there is momentum for both comedy icons to stay in the Emmys conversation.
That would leave two more nomination slots open. Conventional wisdom would lead people to believe “Shrinking” star Jason Segel is a lock, since he was nominated for Season 1, and gets bonus points for co-creating the show, but he is being a bit eclipsed by fellow Apple TV+ actor/producer Seth Rogen for “The Studio.” With “Hacks” having just won the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series last year, there is a prevailing idea that voters will be more partial to another Hollywood satire (though “Shrinking” does get credit for being set in Los Angeles.)
Similar to Segel and Rogen, Netflix has a bevy of options, but has mainly put its energy behind two-time Emmy winner Ted Danson for “A Man on the Inside,” and “Nobody Wants This” star Adam Brody. With both shows having premiered last year, the latter actor is the one that saw more success on the winter TV awards circuit, winning a Critics Choice Award for his performance in the romantic comedy created by Erin Foster. That is not an awards body that has a ton of overlap with the Television Academy though.
Ultimately, Brody has the edge because “Nobody Wants This” has proven to be more popular, but Danson is not someone to ever count out of a comedy race, having been the driving force that got his last Mike Schur collaboration, “The Good Place,” some Emmys recognition.
Predicted Nominees:
Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)
Contenders:
Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
In a Perfect World:
Mohammed Amer, “Mo” (Netflix)
Nathan Fielder, “The Rehearsal” (HBO)
Nathan Lane, “Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu)
More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 77th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Although “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White would not be breaking the category record for most wins with a threepeat this year, he would be tying the record for most consecutive Emmys for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series with “Family Ties” star Michael J. Fox and “All In the Family” star Carroll O’Connor.
Notable Ineligible Series: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (ended); D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation Dogs” (ended).
