Start writing those Pixar obituaries again. “Elio,” the animation studio’s latest original film, had the worst box office opening of any film in Pixar’s history, hitting just $21 million domestic and $35 million globally.
“Elemental” from 2023, which was also Pixar’s last original film, opened to $29.6 million domestic, which until “Elio” was the worst opening for a Pixar movie (technically the original “Toy Story” from 1995 opened an eyelash lower), and with two busts in a row, it’s led to a lot of handwringing about whether or not Pixar still has the capacity of opening an original film or if they should still even try. “Inside Out 2” last year quelled some fears about Pixar’s capacity to hit it big, reaching $1.6 billion as the biggest movie of 2024. And coming up Pixar has “Toy Story 5” and “Incredibles 3” in the works, but also another original feature called “Flow” “Gatto” from the director of “Luca.”
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An article in Puck after the “Elio” bomb wondered why Pixar doesn’t try threading the needle by taking on some other IP. Maybe they’re not interested in becoming Illumination and doing a bunch of Nintendo and “Super Mario Bros.” movies, but could there be another video game that would fit the Pixar brand? The only problem is Pixar has never done that and has never needed to, so it’s not hard to imagine Pete Docter being very much against that.
“Elemental,” though, is the movie Disney and Pixar will want to look at if it wants to be seen as anything but a bomb. After that $29.6 million opening, it legged out to $154 million domestic and $496 million global, good for a whopping 5.2 multiple. With the exception of “Sound of Freedom,” it was the surprise box office success story of 2023. The movie never hit #1, but it also never saw a weekend drop below 40 percent until it was in its 9th weekend in theaters. From there, it lasted another five weeks in theaters and even had a generous bump on Labor Day weekend.
Suffice it to say, before that outcome Pixar was written off for dead then, too. And it was a fair assessment considering three different Pixar movies were all previously shunted to streaming with no theatrical, and the studio’s other IP adaptation, “Lightyear,” also bombed with just $226 million globally and some of the worst reviews of Pixar’s history.
Can “Elio” replicate the longevity of “Elemental?” Both films got an “A” CinemaScore, and “Elio” had even better reviews with an 84 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. “Elio” also still needs to open in a few international markets, most notably China, where “Elemental” managed to gross about $15 million.
But “Elemental” depended heavily on its international haul. More than two-thirds of its global total came from international markets. A $14 million start for “Elio” is comparatively soft. “Elemental” made $15 million in its international debut but only opened in a handful of significant markets that first week; “Elio” already opened in 80 percent of its international footprint.
On the domestic front, even if “Elio” matched the multiple of “Elemental,” it would top out at $109.2 million. And if it replicated the “Elemental” success in foreign territories, the overall best case scenario for “Elio” would be in the ballpark of $350 million globally, potentially a profitable film for Pixar but also still among the lowest overall runs for a Pixar movie. Only 2015’s “The Good Dinosaur” ($332 million), “Lightyear” ($226 million), and “Onward,” ($146 million), a movie whose run was cut short by pandemic theater closures, would be lower.
“Elemental” also was in theaters at a time when there were relatively few other kids movies available, as films like “Trolls Band Together,” “Puss In Boots: The Last Wish” and Disney’s “Wish” wouldn’t open until late in the year. “Elio” moved by a week (it was even bumped from an earlier release in March) to give itself breathing room from Universal’s live-action remake of “How to Train Your Dragon,” which repeated at #1 this weekend and has now crossed $350 million globally after just two weekends in theaters. Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch,” another sci-fi involving aliens, is also taking up some of “Elio’s” oxygen as well.
So where does Pixar go from here? One would hope it’s not making “Cars” and “Finding Nemo” sequels forever. IndieWire’s Screen Talk podcast made the case that Pixar’s latest films have seemed to move away from making movies for adults, and “Elio” especially skews toward a younger audience. Pixar’s last original hit, “Coco” from way back in 2017, was a film that grappled with death and idolized a fictional Mexican musical icon who embodied music that was popular decades before most of its younger audience was born. “Soul,” Pixar’s other recent film that certainly has a more mature bent, didn’t get a domestic theatrical release, but still pulled in $123.5 million worldwide in 2020.
“Elio” is hardly a good result, but we’ve been wrong about signing their death certificate too soon before.
